Friday, March 17, 2017

Global SITREP B3-17: Northern Front Action

 
Israel's Arrow Anti-Ballistic Missile System
Updated 18 March 2017: An IAF strike deep into Syrian territory on the morning of 17 March resulted in Syria launching a salvo of three ballistic missiles directed against Israel. This would constitute an unprecedented escalation of belligerence on the Northern Front by Syria. It may well be that Iran ordered the missiles to be fired at Israel.

24 hours later the media reporting that Syria fired anti-aircraft missiles appears to be correct. However, the use of Israel's Arrow ABM System against Syrian anti-aircraft missiles makes no sense at all. The use of the Arrow ABM System against incoming Syrian ballistic missiles made no sense yesterday, but in light of what actually transpired very early on Friday morning makes sense in that the Arrow ABM operators believed they saw a trio of ballistic missile launches.

Syrian 5N62 "Square Pair" Radar System
The image above is of the 5N62 target engagement radar system that is directly associated with the Syrian S-200VE 'Vega' air defense system imported from Russia. This system otherwise known in the West and Israel as the SA-5b Gammon SAM system. 

It was reported in Arab social media yesterday, and video footage was part of that report, that the fuselage of a destroyed SA-5b Gammon missile landed in a residential area near Idlib, Jordan. Two others reportedly fell in rural Israel where IDF troops have been searching for their remains. The above radar would without a doubt have been used to guide the SA-5b missile in the direction of IAF aircraft which at the time of the firing would have been well within Israeli territory and well out the the SA-5's range. So why fire them?


SA-5b Gammon Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM)
The map below illustrates at least part of the why factor.

Suspect flight path of the IAF Strike at T4 (Tiyas Air Base)
The line which begins over the eastern Mediterraneans Sea and enters Lebanon north of Tyre is the assessed flight path of the IAF strike mission aircraft "package". The package then used the Lebanon mountains as cover from Syrian radar to the east. North of Baalbek the package then turned northeast and made a full afterburner runs towards the T4 Air Base (Tiyas) which was being used to stage High-Value Target weapons for deliver to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The package then fired stand-off missiles to destroy all of the HVTs on their air order of battle (AOOB). The package then turned southwest and exited the target area towards northwestern Jordan and Israeli air space.

Here's where a pair of key assessments have to be made which have not yet been seen in any OSINT reporting. 

1.) The inbound leg of this strike mission was invisible to the highly capable Russian radar at Hmeimim Air Base near Latakia, Syria. It was invisible to IRGC-QF radar operators in Syria. It was invisible to Syrian air defense systems. Only Lebanese Air Force detected the IAF package, but they soon lost contact with it. Hezbollah did not see this package either, and it appears to have flown right up the Bekaa Valley in the heart of Hezbollahland, Lebanon. What is one to make of this? Four new words in the Israel Air Force vocabulary: F-35 'Adir' Stealth Fighter. I assure you, these four words are now also prominent in the Russian, Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah military vocabulary also.

2.) No Russian, Iranian, Syrian or Hezbollah enemy had any clue this package was where it was at any point during this deep strike mission against very High-Value Targets (HVTs) at the T4 Air Base. In fact, they had no idea what had occurred following massive explosions at T4 until long after the IAF package had made its way safely back into Israeli airspace. Only then, and likely due to extreme rage powered by extreme red-faced embarrassment over the destruction of the HVTs, was the order given to blindly fire the longest-range capable missiles of Syria's air defenses, the rapidly aging SA-5 Gammon, towards Israeli territory to the southwest. One of the SA-5s was shot down by the Israeli Arrow ABM system as a potential ballistic threat; the other two were clearly out of fuel and descending and were not engaged.

As a result of this action on the Northern Front it seems obvious that Russian President Vladimir Putin could have paid much closer and more serious attention to what Israeli PM Netanyahu had told him during their recent meeting. This additional serious attentiveness would have made the summoning of Israel's ambassador to Russia unnecessary for the purpose "clarifications." That Israel will strike at the time and in the place of its choosing any shipment of arms from Syria or Iran to Hezbollah is beyond question. If I were Netanyahu I would have instructed my ambassador in Moscow to simply ignore the summoning. No clarifications were necessary.

This action is just the latest chapter of the unresolved war between Israel and Syria dating back to 1973. It will not be the last action, but it is certainly the most significant action as it comes with a strong potential for renewed hostilities.

There is also an ever bigger picture to be mindful of with U.S. and allied boots on the ground now operating in Syria. These are forces which Syria's puppet president has declared to be invaders of Syria's sovereignty. The bigger picture also revolves ultimately around the prophet Jeremiah's words in verses 23-24 of the 49th chapter. A much larger clash lies directly ahead, and it is one which results in the fulfillment of verses 25-27. Note also that the region of southern Syria (Bashan), and northwestern Jordan (cities of Aroer) where the shot down SA-5 crash landed, is integral to the prophecy of Isaiah 17 as seen in verse 2.

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Sean,

Hmmmm.......... yes agreed this is an odd situation. On the basis that these where SAM missles fired by forces in Syria, and they tracked Israel jet fighters flying fast and well back into Israelie airspace, then it would appear that Israel has a weakness in her missle defence shield systems assessment capabilities. Further are we to assume that the Israelie jet fighters anti-SAM systems failed ?, or where the tracking SAMs simply too far behind the jet fighters at the time and lost their "track" lock, or simply ran out of propellant...??. (Better still Messiah Jesus lifted His hand and simply inhibited these enemy missles to aid Israel... :). !).

Blessings in Him.

Rob
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Anonymous said...

Sean,

Do we know the type of IAF aircraft? F-15I, F-16, F-35? God can use anything in His Hands and is certainly not limited to an aircraft or pilot for that matter. I think several of us are "anxious" to see the new F-35 and its capabilites against hostile agents and how ABBA plans to use this beauty. I guess I'm curious if a different aircraft would have had a different outcome.

Blessings!
Jenny

Sean Osborne said...

Rob,

No weakness was evident in this strike in any aspect of Israel's military prowess. In fact just the opposite is now evident as included in the updated SITREP. The key item of this strike has been missed by everyone, probably because most observers have a very limited attention span, as in out of sight, out of mind. They'll catch on soon enough, as now have the Russians, Iranians, Syrians and Hezbollah. The Lord is always supporting Israel; no doubt His hand was here also.

Sean Osborne said...

Hi Jenny,

Based upon how this IAF strike package got to its target and then departed all the way back to Israel without being detected by any enemy radar, I assess the aircraft chosen for the mission was the stealth F-35 Adir.

Also, the stand-off missiles the F-35 used with exceptional precision illustrates the new technological paradigm under which the IAF operates.
It must send shivers up the Ayatollah's spine.

Sean Osborne said...

Serious action now occurring in region of southern Israel; rocket alerts and heavy IDF artillery pounding HAMAS in Gaza.

Sean Osborne said...

Now comes OSINT saying the HVTs struck by the IAF on Friday were North Korean weapons destined for Hezbollah.

jmoll106 said...

Do you think Pres. Assad is a little worried, he's probably relocating to a deep bunker if Israel can fly that far into Syria undetected by Assads military and Russian and Iranian defenses. I'm sure his confidence in russian defenses for his country has gone down too.

Sean Osborne said...

Assad is a puppet and he knows it: neither Russia or Iran, nor Hezbollah or North Korea can fully defend Syria.

The embarrassment for Putin and Russia is overwhelming. A very serious chink has been placed in their "armor" because Israel can do the exact same thing tomorrow if Israel chooses to do so. That's the message which sailed untouched into one of Putin's ears and out the other.

Sean Osborne said...

Israel's two most daring strike missions into Syria both have a North Korean aspect.

The September 2007 destrction of a North Korean plutonium reactor at Al Kibar (read nuclear eeapons capability) and the March 2017 strike on North Korean weapons being imported through the T4 Air Base.

This means that the weapons Israel risked all-out war to destroy on Friday had to be "game changing" at the minimum. What exactly were they?

Anonymous said...

Sean, as usual, the blog is must reading today. What's the likelihood, in your opinion, that Israel does something to neutralize the North Korean threat? I'm not thinking of a military strike necessarily, but perhaps a less overt means to send a clear but unmistakable message to its nutjob leader?

- Brian from Florida

Ben D said...

You are correct Sean, it makes no sense to claim an Arrow missile shot down a Syrian anti-aircraft missile, which debris fell in the Israeli Golan Heights area. I am ex RAAF radar tech and worked both on airborne attack radar as well as ground based aircraft tracking, and it this part of the story of the overall story does not make sense. It has to do with the time involved in target detection, analysis and identification prerequisites before firing of the Arrow ABM, plus time from llaunch to striking a Syrian launched AAM based on expected distance of such a flight path, vesus the flight time of expected of a Syrian anti-aircraft missile from launch to impact and the relative distances involved between ground launch points and aircraft in Syrian airspace.

On the other hand, the Syria story goes that the Israeli attack took place near Palmyra, and that one of the Israeli planes was hit by a Syrian AAM and fell to earth in the Israeli Golan Heights area. Now technically, from a perspective with some experience in this area, this is a more credible scenario, and for those of us who have spent time in the military, the implicit denial by Israel by way of claiming they were collecting the debris of a Syrian anti-aircraft missile. is par for the course. One does not aid the enemy in any way, war fighting is serious business, and is fought in the physical world as well as the mind.

As for the Syrian side firing GG balistic missiles at Israel, there is no evidence that this happened and media is not reporting it, only the one that it was a Syrian ant-aircraft missile.

Sean Osborne said...

Rob,

Glad you caught the update, but stay tuned, this ain't over yet, not by a longshot.

Main thing is that the assesdments are exclusive to Eschatology Today and independent of anthing else on the web. To keep it that way I'll defer from pointing to external sources that are now making similar but not the same assessments.

Sean Osborne said...

Brian,

I don't think Israel will do anything to negate the North Korean threat. That's a US problem to solve, one way or another.

Sean Osborne said...

Ben,

The assessment I arrived at was based upon my experience as a No Such Agency ELINT techie and familiarity with the Ruskie SA-5 Gammon. This is a virtual certanty, and involed at least three Gammon missiles.

I doubt anyone in the IDF has seen the technical parameters of such a launch, nor would Green Pine operators have that familiarity either.

If the launch was captured by overhead IR sensors, well, the IR bloom of four solid fuel boosters could easily be mistaken for a launch from a mobile ballistic platform. The sheer speed of ascent was also certainly a factor that led to the Arrow intercept over Jordan.

No IAF aircraft was a casualty, all returned safety to their home station.

Sean Osborne said...

I have received confirmation that ALL of the technical details included in this SITREP are highly accurate. The source of this comfirmation will remain private.

Nora said...

I wonder when the other shoe will drop there for an all-out war between Syria and Israel to happen and more importantly the Isaiah 17 event concerning Damascus. Things seem to happen rapidly and slowly at the same time.

Ben D said...

Thank you Sean, I appreciate and follow your posts with interest because they are informative wrt technical details, and more importantly, because of your providing important and timely context to the bigger picture of end times.

Sean Osborne said...

Nora,

Events appear to be accelerating; nothing is static at this time.

Israel will suffer greatly in the fulfillment of Isaiah 17, this tempers my own anticipation to a very high degree. Nevertheless, it must take place.

Sean Osborne said...

Ben,

Another detail I noted wrt the SA-5 (S-200 Vega Export variant) is the ballistic mode of launch. This has also been confirmed as occurring Friday morning.

The four solid boosters sent the Gammon at Mach 4 to a ceiling of 95k feet while the 5N62 Square Pair sought a target lock which did not occur.

This action prompted the Arrow launch and intercept over Jordan.

jmoll106 said...

It sure is tempering, we pray thy kingdom come but also pray many more come into the kingdom before all hell breaks loose.
I guess that's why God told Noah to go into the ark and God shut him in.

Sean Osborne said...

H/T to Jenny

Israel Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman:

"The next time the Syrians use their air defense missiles against our aircraft we will destroy them without hesitation."

Great Grany 5 said...

Sean and if I may, Jenny,

I can't tell you how loud I shouted when I read Lieberman's retort to Syria: ""The next time the Syrians use their air defense missiles against our aircraft we will destroy them without hesitation." I loved it and inside of me, I am still shaking and shouting!

Now to go get the Dark State creator and his henchmen and I will be "Completed" in my assignments. To ABBA be all the Glory and no rocks crying out for me, ever.

GG5/SHALOM

Sean Osborne said...

Amen GG5,

These kind of events always bring Isaiah 17:14 to mind.

Since here on the US east coast we're 6 hours behind Israel time, I'm always mindful that we'll wake up some soon morning to learn of Isaiah 17's fulfillment having already occurred.

Not at all unlike learning of the air battle in Syria which took place while we slept last Friday.

Marana'tha!

hartdawg said...

Once Isaiah 17 is fulfilled, everything else will fall in rapid succession. We could be gone before any of these prophecies come to pass. Lately,probably the past week or so, every night when I go to sleep,the thought comes to mind, "I could be gone before I wake up". What a day that will be!

Sean Osborne said...

The weapons hit by Israel at the Syrian T4 Air Base last Friday were high-precision missiles just arrived from North Korea by way of Iran.

Sean Osborne said...

watso911,

Israel has thus far purchased a total of 50 F-35I aircraft to equip its Air Force. The delivery of the F-35I aircraft to Israel runs through 2022.