Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Global SITREP C27-14: Taking the War to the Next Level

31 July 2014 - OPE Day 24/Ground War Day 14:  How is it that after nearly a month of monstrous IAF above ground airstrikes, such as the one imaged above, against HAMAS and the other Islamic terrorists and their subterranean hideouts, that they and most of their most important leadership and a good number of their long-range strategic weapons have managed to survive thus far? I think the answer is a no-brainer, but it is one that up to this point has been totally unacknowledged in any media reports, including the IDF spokespersons office, at least thus far in OPE that is.  

I think that North Korean military tunnel experts had long ago trained Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) personnel in the state-of-the-art for military purpose tunnel construction, and the IRGC in-turn have trained their forward deployed anti-Israel proxies in Hezbollah's Lebanon and HAMAS/PIJ in Gaza and have otherwise assisted in many facets of the actual construction of a massive system of warfighting tunnels. I think that what awaits Israel in the near future along their northern border with Lebanon makes the tunnel complexes in Gaza pale in comparison. We saw strong indications of this during the past year during war materiel transfers between Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The above ground attempts were seen immediately, in near real-time. However, the below ground tunnel transfers are likely to have gone completely unseen. Israel is now learning the hard way in the current Gaza urban warfare what awaits it along the northern frontier in the interim of 8 years since the summer 2006 war with Hezbollah.

I cannot think of a better time for Israel to demonstrate and further refine its pin-point precision bunker busting technology than right now against the known underground terror transportation, communications and warfighting tunnel system in Gaza.  

First Update - OPE Day 24: There was 'shock and awe' from the IAF and it came in a blitz of several dozen mosques in Gaza that HAMAS and other terrorists were using as weapons depots. As has often been pointed out, if you want to find a den of Islamic terrorism, look no further than the local mosque. This is not politically incorrect, just a fact that had been reinforced time and time again all over the world, not just in Gaza. Even Muslims of different sects know to attack mosques of the opposing sect first and foremost in order to harm their ability to wage the jihad. This is precisely what the IAF did while we here in the US were soundly asleep overnight. And its just the beginning.

Above is PM Bibi Netanyahu as he appeared before this morning's session of the security cabinet where he declared it is Israel's intent to continue operations in Gaza at "full strength" until the mission is complete. This is music to Bibi's combat field commanders ears, as well as to my own. And the mission has been defined. The mission of Operation Protective Edge is the demilitarization of Gaza meaning that all terror groups in Gaza will have their military capabilities forcibly taken away from them by the IDF, one way or another, through ceasefire or no ceasefire. This is the basic objective of any army in any way. And, to repeat what has been stated before, as far as the current mission goes what we have seen thus far is just the first phase of the mission to demilitarize Gaza. There is much, much more to come, and that, in and of itself, has very strong prophetic implications as I believe we are going to be eyewitnesses to before this thing is over.

Final Update - OPE day 24: Speaking of mosque's in Gaza, the IDF has put this video up showing the interior of a mosque they captured after a particularly intense firefight with HAMAS terrorists. It becomes lcear in the imagery that HAMAS was desperate to defend this place as not only did it contain weapons (in contravention of international law) but also two tunnels that go in different directions. The primary tunnel is accessed via a vertical concrete and steel rebar shaft that is 14 meters (45.9 feet) deep. This was clearly a very important tunnel to the  HAMAS terrorists.



We'll see come tomorrow if the next U.S.-U.N. announced and so-called 72-hour ceasefire actually takes effect.at 0800. HAMAS has previously declared there can be no ceasefire as long as IDF troops remain in Gaza in addition to HAMAS having declared this to be a jihad in the purest sense of the quranic dictate. We shall see...

One final note.  The article below was published today on The Times of Israel and it is a must read:

Senior infantry officer describes divine protection in Gaza

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Global SITREP C26-14: IDF Freeze Frame

29 July 2014 - OPE Day 22/Ground War Day 12: According to more recent info, PM Netanyahu has not yet issued an order for the IDF to go all out in the destruction HAMAS, the PIJ and other terrorist groups in Gaza. That's why the above image is so appropriate - it is an IDF Merkava MBT (Main Battle Tank) in a freeze frame of full maneuver warfare action in Gaza.  The Times of Israel today has another Op-Ed by David Horovitz on why PM Netanyahu doesn't want to "go all the way" even though he has a full understanding of the danger posed the the Gaza terrorists and the costs that will be borne by Israel and, primarily, the IDF if and when that order is given. 

My opinion is that Netanyahu's reluctance is playing right into the hands of the Gaza terrorists and their allies in Iran, Syria and Lebanon who perceive such reluctance as an acute weakness in Israel's Prime Minister that begs to be exploited at a time and place of their choosing. Hence, the rapidity, frequency and willingness of HAMAS to ignore their own ceasefire offers. They are playing PM Netanyahu for the fool. In the minds of many, both in Israel and the US, this begs the question of whether or not Netanyahu is the right PM for Israel at this time.

War fighting is not operated as if it were a light switch: on-off, on-off, on-off. War is not an intermittent engagement. War is engaged in until objectives are achieved, the enemy vanquished and his war making capability thoroughly destroyed. This is known in any army as being "mission complete." This is where Netanyahu should issue an execute order and have the IDF go until the mission is completed.  In point of fact, the ONLY reason that HAMAS and the other terrorists are still in Gaza firing rockets and mortars into Israel on the 22nd day of Operation Protective Edge is because PM Bibi Netanyahu has thus far refused to order the IDF to complete its mission. Period.

Final Update - OPE Day 22: Israel has no option, that is to say, PM Netanyahu and his security cabinet have no options when it comes to the destruction of HAMAS in the current war.  The current Israeli intelligence assessment holds that HAMAS understood before firing its first rocket in July that it could not win militarily against the IDF, but that it merely needed to withstand the IDFs onslaught. Then when the next "hudna" or temporary ceasefire occurred it would simply rebuild again with new vigor and a buffed-up credibility in the Islamic world for having gone toe-to-toe with Israel. The difference is that after this war HAMAS would not only rebuild in Gaza, but it would create very similar warfighting capabilities within  PA-controlled areas of Judea and Samaria (i.e. the so-called West Bank). Therefore, Israel has no choice in the matter, HAMAS cannot survive this war intact.

30 July 2014 - OPE Day 23/ Ground War Day 13: HAMAS nominal chief of jihad against Israel, the limbless Mohammed Deif, said last night, just prior to the start of OPE Day 23, that his soldiers are "eager for death." The question to be posed to Israel's PM Netanyahu is, Do you require a more formal invitation than this to accept Mohammed Deif's offer? This is without question an Islamic call to jihad and all that such a purely Quranic** declaration implies.

**NOTE: For those who do not understand this critical issue, here is a link to a .pdf in which the subject The Quranic Concept of War, a rare book by Pakistani Brigadier General S.K. Malik that is reviewed in an essay by LTC (US Army Ret.) Joseph C. Meyers in the 2006-07 issue of Parameters, the quarterly US Army War College Professional Journal. This is important for us to understand, but at the moment it is an absolute imperative for PM Netanyahu and the security cabinet to understand and act accordingly following their ongoing meeting and debate on Wednesday, 30 June.

Most Americans, by a wide margin in fact, are solidly on Israel's side in this war against Islamic terrorists. The same cannot be said for our President and his administration whose views are diametrically opposed to those of the majority of the American people regarding this war. Proof of this came in the form of a leaked audio recording by an American source to Israel's Channel One TV station of the Sunday night telephone call between PM Netanyahu and Barack Hussein Obama.. The transcript of that conversation, translated from Hebrew to English, was published today by Channel One. Here is an excerpt of that transcript that was posted by Israel National News (Arutz Sheva) a short time ago:

"Obama: I demand that Israel agrees to an immediate, unilateral ceasefire and halt all offensive activities - particularly airstrikes.
Netanyahu: What will Israel receive in return for a ceasefire?
Obama: I believe that Hamas will stop firing rockets - silence will be met with silence.
Netanyahu: Hamas violated all five previous ceasefires, it is a terrorist organization which is dedicated to the destruction of Israel.
Obama: I repeat and expect Israel to unilaterally stop all its military activity. The pictures of destruction from Gaza distance the world from Israel's position.
Netanyahu: Kerry's proposal was completely unrealistic and gives Hamas the military and diplomatic advantage.
Obama: Within a week of the end of Israel's military activities, Qatar and Turkey will begin negotiations with Hamas on the basis of the 2012 understanding [following the end of Operation Pillar of Defense - ed.], including Israel's commitment to removing the siege and restrictions on Gaza,
Netanyahu: Qatar and Turkey are the biggest supporters of Hamas. It is impossible to rely on them to be fair mediators.
Obama: I trust Qatar and Turkey, and Israel is in no position to choose its mediators.
Netanyahu: I object, because Hamas is able to continue and to fire rockets and to use tunnels for terror attacks...
Obama - interrupts Netanyahu mid-sentence: The ball is in Israel's court - it is obligated to end all military activities."
This transcript proves the points I made in my posts of 27 and 28 July regarding "clearly something larger at play." That statement was followed in a subsequent update in the details in the Final Update for OPE Day 20 as well as the initial post of OPE Day 21 to the effect that Barack Hussein Obama was attempting to dictate to PM Netanyahu specific conditions which were, and always will be, inherently suicidal for the State of Israel in the face of Islamic jihadism. President Obama has clearly shown himself to be on the side of the Muslim Brotherhood terrorists of HAMAS in this war. My next question for PM Netanyahu: What more do you need to know about the current American President to convince you that he is no ally; that he is no friend of the State of Israel?

First Update - OPE Day 23: As we wait for word from the Israeli security cabinet meeting, the latest information (via JNS) is that HAMAS has publicly requested Hezbollah to open up a second front in northern Israel. Details at the embedded link.

Final Update - OPE Day 23: Israel's security cabinet has announced its decision to continue with the expanded Operation Protective Edge mission objectives, continuing an overwhelming offensive against Hamas, PIJ, PFLP-GC, Fatah and other terrorist groups in Gaza and to complete the destruction of all tunnels. There may be occasional local ceasefires declared so long that that they do not endanger IDF forces in the relieving certain conditions of civilians in acute distress or medical emergencies. In continuing this authorized battle rhythm there will come a point at which the survival or existence of HAMAS becomes apparent if not a real-world fact. This also makes the potential for external intervention by Iran and its other proxies that much more likely.


Tisha B'Av 2014: The Children Are Ready (This is the Generation that will rebuild the Temple)

"When will the third Holy Temple be rebuilt? The old school thinks that will only happen in the distant future, when everyone is united by unconditional love. But that future is now. Today’s youth are already linking arms together and putting aside all differences, ready to rebuild. It is the inspiration of the Holy Temple itself, with its promise of hope and peace that brings together all people in unity. This is the generation that will rebuild the Holy Temple."

Any questions?

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Global SITREP C25-14: A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to a Military Victory...

26 July 2014: OPE Day 19/Ground War Day 9: A funny thing happened on the way to Israel's military victory over the Islamic terrorist enemy in Gaza... the Jewish/Israeli left, the western liberal elites and the generally spiritually ignorant of the workings of the God of Israel's fathers took great offense to the fact that websites and blogs such as Eschatology Today would dare to report what is contained in the image above.

One particularly unhinged, politically left-of-center Jew who identified himself only as "Saul G" left me no fewer than seven (yes, 7!) responses spaced a minute or two apart full of invectives on how what God is doing right now in Israel is some sort of a grand hoax! God, perpetuating a hoax in Israel? What abject lunacy! So, to continue, this "Saul G" was particularly apoplectic about the fact that, in his view, the lowest of the low, the settlers of Israel, those who are the descendants of Joseph, Ephraim, the tribes of Israel and of Judah which God Himself has called and brought back to Israel and has fashioned as one nation instead of two, exactly and explicitly as prophesied by Israel's ancient prophets such as can be read in Ezekiel 37, to these beloved of God our "Saul G" would have us believe they are of less than sound mind and Spirit; incapable of speaking the truths they are living each and every day as Islamic terrorist rockets attempt to take their lives, loved ones and livelihoods away from them. This leftist Israeli does more to deny the very workings of the God of his fathers than do the Islamonazi's who would sever his head from his shoulders in a Tel Aviv minute were they to attain the position to do so. Yes, I believe it will be Israeli's like this "Saul G" who will fulfill the words of Yeshua HaMashiach as recorded in John 5:43.

Final Update OPE Day 19: So, after taking 12 "humanitarian" hours off from watching Gaza, but knowing full well the war would continue unabated in Judea and Samaria, a return to information collection informs that a couple of handfuls of jihadists in Judea and Samaria were sent on their way to eternity by IDF gun fire which was in response to the newly deceased efforts at rock and molotov throwing while they were still breathing. And as Israel had extended it ceasefire until the midnight hour, it came as no surprise that HAMAS would not reciprocate. So, in another 52 minutes or so the war will resume in-full once again and the resident of Gaza can become even more acquainted with the rubble and dust that used to be their local neighborhoods. The 16 hour cessation of IDF fire gave Gaza residents a chance to see what HAMAS has brought to them by abducting and murdering a trio of Israel's youth and attacking Israel with rockets. May the IDF reduce Gaza to a stone age habitation; may Muslims see first hand what their false religion pays back in ten-fold dividends. May the Muslims of Gaza discover the One true "I am that I am" God of Israel while they yet live.
 
27 July 2014 - OPE Day 20/Ground War Day 10: And so HAMAS side of the war has resumed in full this Sunday morning. The amount of Iranian-supplied and locally manufactured ordnance stockpiled in human-shield locations in Gaza was once again on display in the latest barrage on Israeli towns over the border. This is going on as PM Netanyahu's latest order, with security cabinet concurrence, for the IDF to stand down until some point tonight is being steadfastly adhered to by the IDF. There is no Israel return fire once again in the face of renewed HAMAS missile barrages, so there is clearly something larger at play in which Israel deems the significant risk of keeping her own guns silent will win her some victory or additional advantage in the international arena. When it comes to warfighting this is something I've not seen before; rope-a-dope tactics are for the boxing ring, not the battlefield, even for Israel with its overwhelming tactical military advantage on the ground in Gaza, and the addition of the Palestinian Authority's Fatah faction declaring "open war" on Israel.

Briefly on the tunnels... the images that have been broadcast or published in news reports overwhelmingly present them to be of dimensions which enable a human being to walk upright through with lighting and other cabling for Command, Control and Communications (C3). However, the image below published by CBS News illustrates that there are tunnels large enough to drive a Toyota SUV through with room to spare. It is this size tunnel I suspect most of HAMAS' heavy Iranian-made missiles and explosive ordnance has been brought into Gaza from the Sinai.

Final Update OPE Day 20: Israel's unilateral ceasefire ended and the IDF went back into action against HAMAS and other terrorist groups in Gaza. Thus far it appears as if PM Netanyahu has rejected US president Obama's demand that Israel re-engage in a unilateral unconditional ceasefire. I agree with MK Danny Danon, what needs to happen is a unilateral ceasefire of the Obama Administration's ridiculous attacks against Israel. The fact that U.S. Commander-In-Chief Obama prevented the US military from destroying Al Qaeda in Iraq and Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan is no justification for Israel to do the same for HAMAS, Fatah, PIJ, PFLP-GC, Islamic State (ex-ISIS) and other terrorist groups in  in Gaza. In fact, just the opposite is true, the US example in Iraq and Afghanistan is all the rationale Israel;s political leadership should need to justify the annihilation of the enemy that denies Israel's right to exist. The argument is quite the no-brainer; common sense should dictate it is case closed.

28 July 2014 - OPE Day 21/Ground War Day 11: The news this morning sounds eerily similar to the news that was being reported just prior to the cessation of hostilities in the Israel-Hezbollah war in August 2006.  This is not really new news but more like a deja vu we've been here and done this before premonition. The news this morning is that the United States once again is applying extreme pressure upon Israel to halt their combat operations before a mission complete military victory can be achieved.

In 2006 the U.S. demands upon Israel were followed by U.N.Security Council Resolution 1701 which was and remains essentially a set of pie-in-the-sky, completely unenforceable and often completely ignored conditions upon the terrorists of Hezbollah which make inevitable war on an even greater scale an absolute certainty for a day in the future. Sound familiar? (** see NOTE below)

Perhaps there will be more to come, perhaps not. This might be due to the fact that the history of the past 8 years is still a fresh enough memory that an update might just be a moot point. Under the current conditions Gaza will not become a HAMAS-free demilitarized zone but more akin to a Lebanon on Israel's southern border. There's nothing news worthy about that or if PM Bibi Netanyahu caves in yet again to Barack Hussein Obama.

First Update - OPE Day 21:  I stand corrected by events on the ground in Israel and Gaza, as well at the UN. Much to my own acute surprise, a short time ago, Israel officially rejected a U.N. Security Council demand for an immediate ceasefire. Not only did the UNSC demand get rejected straight away, but PM Netanyahu's security cabinet approved and the PM issued orders to IDF field commanders to resume the assault on Gaza's terrorists. So, as of this afternoon Israel time, all branches of the IDF are back in the full combat mode of operations in, above and under Gaza. This action utterly refutes any pretense of an Israeli honoring of the Islamic Eid-al-Fitr holiday ending their month of Ramadan, meaning that Israel does not regard HAMAS or any of the other Gaza terrorists as observant Muslims, but rather as Islamic enemies to be vanquished. At this moment there is a major operation underway in the Jabalia area where IDF armor is decimating a HAMAS commando force. 

IDF Resumes Gaza War in Full on Monday Afternoon, 28 July - OPE Day 21

Also of note, HAMAS long-range rockets have all but disappeared from the skies over Israel. Only short range rockets and mortars are being fired into Israel of late. As seen in new IDF videos a good number of HAMAS' short-range al-Qassam missiles are failing to launch properly, landing only a block or two away from the launch site among the Gaza population to devastating effect (fuel and warhead are both detonating on impact). These may be older missiles that were improperly prepared for storage prior to this war erupting. Whatever the case, HAMAS ability to strike deep into Israel appears to be greatly diminished.

PM Netanyahu made it clear today that the HAMAS-biased UN call for a cease fire was premised upon a different reality than has existed since 8 July and still exists in this war, and that Israel's armed forces will continue to destroy HAMAS warfighting capabilities and the tunnels in Gaza as only the first step in its operation to demilitarize Gaza. The PM intimated that when the international community comes to its senses and sees the war for what it truly is, then Israel may have something in common to discuss at the United Nations Security Council. Bravo Mr. Prime Minister, Bravo!

Final Update - OPE Day 21: The orders issued to IDF field commanders are beginning to become clearer. They are wholly consistent with Israel's oft repeated threat to significantly expand its combat operations in Gaza. Once again entire communities in Gaza are being advised to pack up and leave. It appears as if IDF armor will begin to penetrate into the heart of Gaza City and other locations in a campaign designed to eradicate all HAMAS military capability and leave nothing for Iran to re-arm once hostilities are concluded.

NOTE** This morning's early news did have a very familiar ring to it. Hindsight being 20/20 it now appears as if what was going on was a full-scale disinformation campaign designed to bully Israel into a unilateral ceasefire. As we now know, that ploy did not work and once again exposed the Obama Administration as untrustworthy and working against the interests of the people and State of Israel.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Global SITREP C24-14: "Their God Changes the Path of Our Rockets!"

 HAMAS terrorists and their Qassam-3 rockets poised to fire at Israel

24 July 2014 - OPE Day 17/Ground War Day 7: Please consider this SITREP as an update to what was posted in "SITREP C17-14: Exposing a False god on the Altar of Gaza." In that SITREP I began the second paragraph with:

These enemies of the God of Israel (Psalm 83:2) are very fond of saying "if Allah wills" and who cry out how great he is every time they send a rocket to bring fire upon the children of Israel.

And concluded the third paragraph with:

On the altar that is Gaza will these prophetic words now begin to be made manifest before our own witnessing eyes. "Then you shall know that I am the Lord."
Now I can report that something miraculous is happening in this war, something that is light years well beyond the man-made technology of Israel's vaunted Iron Dome anti-missile defense system. The unseen hand of the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob is literally altering the planned trajectory of the terrorist missiles on their way to targets in Israel. What's so amazing is that the terrorist missileers and their commanders in Gaza know that the God of Israel is responsible for taking those missiles off their well-planned trajectories.

In the U.K.-based Jewish paper Jewish Telegraph - published last Friday - appears an article on page 17 by Barbara Ordman titled "GOD CHANGES PATH OF OUR ROCKETS."  In this article it states that the people of Israel have been witnessing "hourly miracles." The very next sentence of this article reads:

As one of the terrorists from Gaza was reported to say when asked why they couldn’t aim their rockets more effectively: “We do aim them, but their God changes their path in mid-air.”
The terrorists in Gaza are no dummies. Before they fire a single rocket at Israel they have already taken great diligence to ensure their mathematical throw-weight calculations are correct and that each missile's ballistic trajectory in its planned flightpath will strike where it is aimed.  So when the terrorist commanders ask their missileers why the al-Qassam and M-75 missiles are not hitting the selected targets (as reported back to them in very near real time via Israeli online media) the response that the God of Israel is altering the trajectories in mid-flight is an exceptional admission we would be remiss not to make very careful note of.  "Then you shall know that I am the Lord." Amen!

 A mass HAMAS surrender of 150 to the IDF

In Gaza - not all Muslim's are suicidal and desirous of going into the non-existent arms of 40 virgins in a non-existent islamic paradise.  Last night approximately 150 HAMAS terrorists surrendered to live and potentially fight another day (Israel has been fond of releasing terrorists in the past) when IDF troops poured accurate fire directly on their Rafah position which had been firing missiles at Israel and other ordnance at the IDF.  And at the Kerem Shalom border crossing in the extreme southern corner of the Gaza Strip there was an active military defense of Israel by Egyptian army troops who killed a would-be Islamic suicide bomber attempting to cross into Israel. A little further south Egyptian army troops also killed Islamic terrorists in their vehicle who were preparing to fire Grad artillery rockets into Israel from the Sinai. Egypt is acting like the military ally Israel deserves and the United States under the Obama Administration is anything but. Also of note, there were no IDF casualties during heavy fighting in Gaza overnight. There is no question that Israel is taking it to the terrorist enemy in a very big way, even as IDF battlefield commanders await the order to delivery the crushing blow upon the enemy.

As for  reports about "Palestinian" demands relative to any ceasefire... "Nuts" is the only proper response. Neither HAMAS nor any other group if Islamic terrorist is any position to demand anything of the State of Israel which they all refuse to accept as an existent reality.

The War Expands

Final Update - OPE Day 17: The Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades claimed responsibility in the shooting today of an Israeli law enforcement officer in Qalandiya (north of Jerusalem). This group of terrorists is the military arm of Fatah which is led by PA president Mahmoud Abbas, and are well known jihadist allies of the PFLP-GC and PIJ. It would seem at this point that the Fatah terrorists have expanded their war effort against Israel from Gaza into the environs adjacent to Jerusalem. This attack has resulted in a continuing firefight in Qalandiya with more than 60 Palestinians wounded and three killed by Israeli return fire. Hostilities have also erupted in the area of Rachel's Tomb (Kever Rochel) south of Jerusalem. Hostilities are reportedly continuing in these areas at 0300 in the morning in Israel.

 A virtually beached HAMAS?

25 July 2014 - OPE Day 18/Ground War Day 8:  The image above strikes me as being illustrative of how close HAMAS is to being literally pushed into the sea with their missiles. It also strikes me that there must be huge subterranean stockpiles of this weaponry which HAMAS no longer has access to because it was relatively quiet last night. These are the kind of sequential IDF battlefield victories which usually bring one of two things: either a desperate plea for an immediate ceasefire from a plethora of leftist, international pro-HAMAS third parties (which HAMAS would take advantage of or just plain ignore), or yet another plea from the current Iranian sock-puppet president for Muslim unity in a grand military confrontation against Israel.

Looks like the IDF is close to hitting the jackpot because today we've got both urgent ceasefire pleas and three days of successive Iranian government calls-to-arms against Israel. The first call was Ayatollah Khamenei's on Wednesday calling for the destruction of Israel through "mighty armed resistance", and his newest sock puppet Rouhani essentially repeating that call yesterday, followed by all the other mullahs repeating those calls in Tehran and Qom today. It may well be the Iranian calls will result in either or both Syria and Hezbollah intervening in this war on HAMAS behalf. That intervention would come with all of the Bible prophecy implications we have discussed here at length previously.

Final Update OPE Day 18: The Good News is that PM Netanyahu's security cabinet in a unanimous vote has "flatly rejected" US SECSTATE Kerry's alleged 7 to 18 day long "humanitarian cease fire plan." It was apparently a pro-Arab plan largely crafted by pro-HAMAS Qatari Arabs and therefore a total non-starter. The ceasefire plan was even a non-stater for HAMAS, which should tell everyone one thing very clearly - the peace plan was a ruse, a ploy, a political bear trap set for Israel to step into. All of this is par for the course with an incompetent such as Kerry and his friends.

Again, any Arab demand should be rejected out of hand, and only an unconditional HAMAS and terrorist surrender coupled with total disarmament is appropriate at this point. Israeli aircraft, armor, naval forces and boots on Gaza's soil rule the day, and the nigh,t and must dictate the terms of a terrorist surrender. Period.

The death toll among "Palestinians" in Judea and Samaria violent protests and attacks has risen to a total of 5 through today. Most of today's violence was the direct result of violent political Islam being preached in the "religion of peace" mosques in the Jerusalem area. The Muslim Imams are no doubt responding the HAMAS calls for a general uprising in Israel, which mirrors the calls made by Iran over the past three days as well as their Hezbollah pawns in Lebanon. The Jewish Sabbath in Israel is likely to be anything but restful.

Global SITREP C6-14: Ukraine is Essential to Ezekiel 38/39 Fulfillment

Russian BUK-M1-2 SAM System TELAR combat vehicle

BREAKING NEWS UPDATE 24 July 2014: It was just announced that Russia has been attacking Ukrainian military forces via field artillery fired from Russian territory onto Ukrainian territory for several days now. Corporate media are citing U.S. government sources (i.e. the Obama Pentagon) are referring to the artillery strikes as "a military escalation." This is not a military escalation. This is an unprovoked act of war by Russia against Ukraine. It remains to be seen in the next several hours if Ukraine launches its own counter-fires against the Russian artillery.

Just days ago Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 from (Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur) was blown out of the sky by a Russian BUK-1/2 SAM air defense system as seen in the image above. The Russians apparently mistook MH17 for a Ukrainian intelligence collections aircraft and blew it out of the sky so as to hide what Russia is doing just over the border - massing heavy weapons such as tanks, howitzers and SAM systems in preparation for a much expanded war with Ukraine.


As seen in the image directly above a BUK-M1-2 TELAR that was clearly missing at least one and possibly two of its onboard missiles was filmed leaving rebel-controlled Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine and entering Russia just hours after the shootdown occurred. This image is a single frame from that film. In short, Russia has been caught red-handed in an act of war against a sovereign state and murdering many innocent citizens of NATO nations on board a commercial aircraft in an international air corridor in order to hide its hostile intentions.

  Ukrainian combat soldiers on-the-move near Kramatorsk, Ukraine

15 May 2014: OSCE-sponsored talks on the Ukrainian crisis going absolutely nowhere fast as pro-Russian insurgents are unwilling to attend the face-to-face sessions in Kiev, they demand the talks be held in Donetsk, capital city of their self-declared Republic of Donetsk. This stark reality led to the events which transpired last night as Ukrainian military forces once again took the battlefield initiative and launched simultaneous operations against pro-Russian bases outside of two key locations: Kramatorsk and its neighbor to the northeast Slovyansk. Both pro-Russian bases were destroyed according to an Associated Press report that hit the wires very early this morning. The report also cited a Ukrainian defense ministry source as saying there were no Ukrainian casualties in either operation.

Slovyansk became a focal point in this crisis early on as it is the location of a former-Soviet and Russian arms depot holding over one million ground combat weapons of various types. Securing this arsenal was clearly a primary objective for the Russian Spetsnaz forces who infiltrated early on following their successful Crimean operation. It is unknown if Ukrainian forces destroyed this arsenal last night of if it another insurgent base they took out. Odds are this arsenal is very high on a list of immediate Ukrainian military objectives.

There is far more to this Ukrainian-Russian military face-off than just the fact that most of the unrest is being stirred up in majority Russian-speaking oblasts inside Ukraine. The invasion and annexation of Crimea was just an essential territory for Russia to control from the outset because its greater strategic objectives lie in several Ukrainian oblasts (provinces) I identified in earlier in the posts on this subject. Many of us may be reading in the papers that Russia has Ukraine over a barrel over with respect to natural gas pipeline imports and the debt Ukraine has piled up because of its imports of this essential resource. 

However, neither the majority Russian-speaking population or the natural gas issue satisfactorily addresses the full truth of the matter. The bigger picture revolves around the fact that Ukraine has the factories and the defense industry infrastructure which the Russian military relies upon as much as Ukraine relies upon Russian natural gas imports to keep its economy afloat, perhaps even more so.  For our eschatological interests in this conflict this is an essential item to make a note of: Russia needs the the defense infrastructure that exists today in Ukraine because without it it is a questionable proposition that Russia could successfully mount the type of military operation we have prophetically described for us in Ezekiel 38/39.

Consider these facts: 
  • The Ukrainian company Motor Sich produces helicopter engines and spare parts that largely enable the Russian military's helicopter fleet to maintain its flight operations. Of the 1,000 engines that will be produced in Ukraine in 2014 at least 400 of them are for Russian choppers, which is 100 more engines than exist in Russia's current attack helicopter fleet.
  • The servicing and maintenance of Russia's SS-19 nuclear missiles is a $10-million per year business for the Ukrainian company Yuzhmash. Moreover, a full 80% of the entire Russian strategic nuclear rocket forces were designed and built in Ukraine.
  • There are a minimum of 50 Ukrainian factories which provide all manner of military hardware and services to the Russian war machine, and this constitutes a critical infrastructure to the Russian capability to project its military power outside of its borders - such as described in Ezekiel 38/39.
No hard conclusions can be drawn as yet because this crisis has some distance to go before a viable forecast can be made, yet it seems reasonable to assess at this point that either Ukraine will fall into full servitude to Russia as it was during the days of the Soviet Union, or Ukraine may find a new and growing market for its military hardware in the alliance just to its west known as NATO.

Monday, July 21, 2014

Global SITREP C23-14: IDF Taking All of Gaza

21 July 2014: OPE Day 14/Ground War Day 4: It is now obvious to this observer that what may have begun as a limited IDF operation to disarm the various Gaza jihadists has of necessity become a full-scale war of conquest. Gaza is to be completely conquered; the Islamic jihadists liquidated and their weaponry permanently destroyed. The political decision to destroy HAMAS, et al, stems from their abject refusal to accept Israel's right to exist. The only question I have at this time: How long will it take for HAMAS military allies to intervene on their behalf against Israel?


22 July 2014 - OPE Day 15/Ground War Day 5: The focus of late in the media is on the numbers of casualties: IDF casualties and enemy casualties. The enemy has no regard for casualties, combatant or non-combatant civilian. In Islamic jihad casualties are irrelevant except as a propaganda and psychological warfare tool with which to bludgeon the morality of their Judeo-Christian enemy. The media focus on casualties is almost certainly due to the limited amount of information trickling back in from the front lines as the IDF advances deeper into and around Gaza City. The battle raging in and under HAMAS' heavily armed Shuja'iyya district redoubt is extremely fierce, however at least one column of IDF armor has reportedly pierced through to the Zeitoun neighborhood that lies directly east of Shuja'iyya and south of Gaza City.

To the north Hezbollah in Lebanon is voicing its support of HAMAS and the PIJ. It remains to be seen exactly what Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah meant by saying, "The Lebanese resistance is willing to cooperate completely, in order to realize the goals of the Palestinian resistance, and to ensure the failure of the aggression."

Final Update - OPE Day 15: It is very much worthwhile noting this morning that a very curious block of pro-HAMAS nations has emerged which has aligned itself against the Israeli-Egyptian alliance, even in the attempts at achieving, or thwarting as the case may be, a ceasefire in Gaza. The curious block most notably includes the Muslim nations of Turkey, Sudan (Kuwsh), Iran (Persia/Paras). Little Qatar is the lone purely ethnic Arab state in this group. Prophecy students will immediately notice the first three in this alignment also figure in Ezekiel 38/39 as the second-tier nations listed by Ezekiel who will in the future come against Israel as part of the northern Magog confederation. Everywhere we look these days the nations involved in current and future Bible prophecy fulfillment are exactly where they should be with respect to those prophecies.

23 July 2014 - OPE Day 16/Ground War Day 6:  It is my opinion that the current U.S. FAA ban on flights to Israel has nothing to do with the safety of commercial aircraft and their passenger but has everything to do with a form of economic and political punishment upon Israel because the IDF is in the process of destroying HAMAS and re-conquering the territory of Gaza. Were the FAA ban truly what the U.S. Obama Administration claims it to be then all commercial flights to Russia would have been banned since their military shootdown of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 on 17 July 2014.

Day 16 begins with the IDF having achieved the hard-fought position of now being able to inflict a crushing blow against the entire terrorist infrastructure in Gaza. IDF commanders are looking to Jerusalem for approval to launch such an operation across the remaining unconquered parts of Gaza, and then to take the war down into the terrorists subterranean C2 (Command and Control) bunkers. They have the technical means of executing such an offensive that would significantly reduce combat risks to individual IDF soldiers but prove to be imminently lethal to the terrorists. Git'r'done.

Friday, July 18, 2014

Global SITREP C22-14: Pressing the Advantage of Tactical Superiority

19 July 2014 - OPE Day 12:  First things first. Israeli PM Netanyahu needs to ignore anything that comes his way from the inept American CInC Barack Hussein Obama. Just plain ignore him. Period. Also ignore the rabid Turkish Islamists like PM Recep Tayyip Erodgan. Erdogan may be the leader of Turkey which remains within NATO, but he is not to be trusted as a potential ceasefire negotiating partner any farther than Bibi can spit a wad of tasteless bubble gum. 

Now that that's settled we can move on and tie into where the last SITREP left off prior to the final update - the location of the bulk of HAMAS and the PIJ combatant forces the IDF must search out and dispatch to eternity.  In some instances enemy combatants are clearly using their own families as human shields. Again, to the Islamist, there is zero reverence for human life during jihad.

I am fairly certain that a very large and eminently capable IDF force entered both northern and southern Gaza and then proceeded cautiously to identify each and every warfighting tunnel the enemy could potentially exploit to suddenly pop up on a flank or in rear areas, or to avoid any dwellings or roads seeded with IED booby-traps. A minimum of 22 tunnels have been identified thus far. 

Central Gaza is being held in kind of tactical limbo by an equally massive IDF force. Now it seems that these IDF tactics have successfully isolated some pockets of the enemy forces which resulted in at least one surprise firefight each in northeastern Gaza and in Khan Younis. Both contacts with the enemy concluded very well for the IDF. It looks as if the IDF is engaged in a standard tactical pincer movement, with a focus in southern Gaza to cut off potential terrorist escape routes to the open spaces of the Sinai. This tactic is reminiscent of the US battle plan of the late-General "Stormin' Norman" Schwarzkopf against Iraqi Republican Guard units in 1991's Operation Desert Storm, the objective of which was to cut the enemy from escape off and then to kill them. The plan was nearly flawless which resulted in the US political leadership erring in a decision to limit the war to exactly 100 hours. Let's hope Israel's political leadership does not make that same mistake this time.

Missiles continue to be fired by Gaza's Islamic terrorists, but the number of missiles fired at Israel's civilian population centers has been very significantly reduced in the past 24 hours. It seems that the bulk of the terrorist missile teams may have gone underground in order to extend their life expectancy. Smart move on their part.

First Update - OPE Day 12/Ground War Day 2: The number of rockets that have been fired into Israel in the past 36 hours was 136. That's an average of 4 per hour. Prior to the ground operation the average was significantly higher by a factor of two or three. One fatality has occurred in the Dimona area. Israel very intelligently went into the ground invasion phase of this war without the burden of embedded corporate media within its units. So, news reports coming out of Gaza will be a scarce commodity; media reporting coming from areas of Gaza still under HAMAS and PIJ control should be regarded as either biased or under duress. For the most part it appears as though the ignoble Islamic jihadists have gone to cowering among Gaza's captive human shield population now that a real, heavily armed and professional army is confronting them on their home turf. So goes the myth of the invincible islamic holy warrior of the false god allah.

Final Update for OPE Day 12: Day 12 saw a tunnel ambush carried out by HAMAS terrorists dressed in IDF uniforms. An Israeli officer was killed in the ambush, one of the attackers was killed in return fire and the rest were likely killed as they were attempting to escape back into their tunnel by IAF close air support. This is one tunnel that IDF HUMINT sources in Gaza did not learn of and IDF boots did not discover it in time to avert the infiltration.

 Ever larger and more powerful IDF units are on the move to engage the enemy in Gaza

20 July 2014 - First Update OPE Day 13/Ground War Day 3: The IDF has called up another 50,000 reservists just as the surge of the previous 40,000 strong IDF call up began materializing and making their presence felt in the Gaza ground operation this morning. At present it appears that Israel has committed about one-sixth of its front line and reserve forces to Operation Protective Edge. By all indications OPE Day 13 will see a near doubling of IAF air strikes and both land naval naval artillery bombardment on terrorist positions. The IDF has thus far suffered less than 10 KIA, but the same cannot be said of the terrorist enemy where their dead now number in the hundreds and counting. Soon, as the tunnel clearing operation progresses, there will be fewer and fewer places for the enemy to hide. The IDF may also soon find it is easier (far less costly with less risk) to simply burn HAMAS out of the tunnels by fire and other oxygen depleting methods.



Final Update OPE Day 13:  The fiercest fighting thus far in the IDF ground operation in Gaza occurred today in the Shuja'iyya (a/k/a Sejaiya) district of eastern Gaza City. This is the high ground west of Gaza City, a north-south ridge overlooking all of the city to the Mediterranean shoreline. One might anticipate an IDF left flanking maneuver to the shore from the southern edge of the Shuja'iyya ridge in order to completely isolate and thereby cut off all the Gaza City combatants from all other jihadi forces in the urban centers further to the south. This would constitute a classic tactical envelopment of an enemy force in its primary defensive redoubt, yet with its back to the sea and no chance of escape. Typical Islamic treachery can be expected, and no ceasefire should be contemplated by IDF commanders unless it is essential to their objectives. Israel should pursue its tactical advantage with great vigor and dispatch the enemy where is now trapped. Nothing gets a jihadists attention like the spectre of death or unconditional surrender at the hands of the IDF. If Gaza City must be razed to the ground, and then some, so be it.

NOTE: The literal fulfillment of Bible prophecy has been in progress for the past 66 years. There is a very strong possibility, if not a certain probability, that we are now witnessing the commencement of the final battles between Israel and the Psalm 83 confederation. Virtually all of the major and minor Old Testament prophets have something to say to us about the conclusion of this war. How well do you know your Bible? We're about to find out.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Global SITREP C21-14: IDF Enters Gaza (Again)

18 July 2014 - OPE Day 11: As Israel's armored and mechanized forces entered Gaza above and below ground level the paradigm of this war began to change in ways that we may not be able to determine just yet. Another truth in war is that truth is usually the first casualty even though it was well protected by a bodyguard of lies. That's just the nature of warfare. On the surface, Israel's leadership preconditions this as a war not to beat up HAMAS but to break all of their "toys." 

I'd prefer they just shoot all of the terrorists with their fingers on the triggers and missile firing buttons because their weapons cannot fire themselves and they can be gathered up for destruction after all the enemy has been dispatched to the hereafter. Is this not what we learn from the prophecy of Ezekiel 38/39? Somebody please suggest to Bibi and his cabinet to read those prophetic chapters for a hint on how to prosecute this war.

 Stay aloof, stay alive IDF soldiers!
Now that the IDFs armor and boots have gone in there is word of the IDF being ordered by Israel's political leadership of "significantly widening the operation." This is a good thing, a necessary if not essential thing. Let the generals and on-the-ground commanders run the war, not the politicians. Limited objectives always yield limited results. At home in Israel all traitors need to be arrested, stipped of any official duties or office and tried for giving aid and comfort to the terrorist enemy. And let the generals leading this war realize that it is not "good luck to all of us" they they need to invoke and rely upon, but the God of their fathers. Aside from this, it is good to see that Rabbi Dov and many Israelis "get it" on how this war needs to be prosectued.

First Update - OPE Day 11: With OPE Day 11 about three-quarters complete, the IDF ground operation in Gaza continues progressing. So far - so good in other words. The only cautionary note I will sound is that the IDF troops have not met with any large-scale HAMAS or PIJ resistance. The enemy has thus far suffered only about 20 KIA in actual ground combat. This means there are hundreds of the Syrian and Iranian/Hezbollah-trained Izz Ad-Din al-Qassam Brigade and PIJ soldiers in hiding, plus the untrained reserve force of perhaps 10,000 who have yet to make any appearance on the battlefield. So, where are they? With nightfall's rapid approach and a moon rise over a mainly cloudy sky not for another 6 hours (midnight Israel time) the conditions might be right for an appearance.

Final Update - OPE Day 11: With just a couple of hours left in the first full 24-hour day of the IDF ground operation comes the second indication that the reality of what the war in Gaza truly encompasses is finally beginning to register upon the political leadership of both Likud and Kadima - that is realization of the necessity to completely destroy HAMAS and their fellow jihadists in order to achieve the minimalist goals that were announced by the PM prior to the commencement of the ground op in Gaza. In short, the return has to outweigh or exceed the investment. As noted above, the first indication was the necessity to expand the scope of the ground operation after just 12 hours since IDF boots initially crossed the border. May the Lord's prophetic word be made manifest in the coming hours, days and or weeks.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Global SITREP C-20-14: The Hammer, the Anvil and the Crucible - A Joint Operation to Destroy HAMAS

IDF Merkava MBTs maneuver on Israeli side of the Gaza border. Egypt wants to see them on HAMAS side of the border.

16 July 2014 OPE Day 9: Israel security cabinet delays yet again the next logical military step against HAMAS in the face of an ever increasing and lethal barrage of rocket fire striking Israel. Here's my take on what I believe is the new dynamic at work here. 

One day after the so-called failure of the Egyptian ceasefire proposal it is becoming increasingly clear that the Egyptian plan was a tactical maneuver that was designed to fail - both Israel and Egypt knew in advance there was little if any chance of HAMAS accepting a ceasefire, just as there was no chance of Iran allowing its proxies to in Gaza; now that the war is on, it's on. The alleged "collapse" of the Egyptian proposal gave Israel an open door to begin operations to finish off HAMAS once and forever inside Gaza. Egypt, under the anti-Muslim Brotherhood-anti-HAMAS presidency of General Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi, would like nothing better than to play to role of the anvil and for Israel to play the role of the hammer, with HAMAS and the other jihadists being the molten metal coming out of the crucible they intend to make of Gaza. 

See Global SITREP A16-13 and Global SITREP A20-13 for the established background on the Egyptian-Israel Alliance. Those two SITREPs will powerfully illustrate the current de facto military alliance that has existed between Israel and Egypt since General Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi's coup in Egypt against Mohamed Morsi and the al-Ikhwan al-Muslimun (Muslim Brotherhood) ever so briefly established rule in Egypt. It was only a about 7 months ago that Egypt was ready to launch a military operation against HAMAS in Gaza. 

At that time Israel was going to support the Egyptians fully as HAMAS was then attacking Egyptian troops in the Sinai after the coup against the MB government. Egypt was just that close to taking on HAMAS in Gaza. Now the roles are reversed, but the way forward is not perfectly clear and this is what I think is the delay in Israel going full tilt against HAMAS. The Netanyahu cabinet is looking for assurances that when the IDF is ordered into Gaza (the hammer) the Egyptians will act to the full extent of their military capabilities against HAMAS as well (the anvil). There is much at stake for both Israel and Egypt, and the potential future prophetic implications of this may well be found in both Isaiah 19 and Ezekiel 29.

First Update - OPE Day 9: A fairly detailed article in today's edition of the Jerusalem Post confirms what I posted within SITREP C16-14 on July 11 about the IDFs inevitable ground combat operations in Gaza. This report contains information that I have been reluctant to report concerning the number and type of roadside, tunnel and entire building IEDs HAMAS has prepostioned to greet the IDF on arrival. To his credit, some of PM Netanyahu's reluctance to dispatch the boots is based upon HUMINT on this issue presented to him by the IDF. The real surprises are in store for HAMAS, PIJ, et al.

Second Update - OPE Day 9: It appears as though a major - possibly last ditch - effort is underway by various foreign governments in trying to convince HAMAS that it is in their best interests to make a serious attempt towards an immediate ceasefire. This is not so much for the benefit of the terrorists, but for the estimated 80,000 civilians that remain imminently in harms way. These are the civilians which HAMAS has cajoled or otherwise pressured into remaining in what will soon be a full-scale warzone. Israel has done and will do its utmost to preserve the sanctity of human life irregardless of the hostility they may hold for Israel. HAMAS and the rest of the Islamic jihadists have no such compelling morals as has been clearly demonstrated with their rocketry targeting civilians, both Arab and Israeli within Israel and Gaza (at least 100 of HAMAS and PIJ rockets have landed in Gaza). Israel now has about as many front line combat troops arrayed against HAMAS and PIJ in Gaza as it had on all fronts in the June 1967 Arab-Israel war. And Israel has just called up another 8,000.

First Update - OPE Day 10: It's well after midnight in Israel (8PM EDT/5PM PDT in the US), so we're firmly into the 10th Day of Operation Protective Edge.

The news at this time is that a "humanitarian" cease fire has reportedly been agreed to according to many OSINT reports. The cease fire, also known in Islamic, particularly in Egyptian Ikhwan conceptual terms, as a "hudna." A hudna is merely a tactical ploy that came into being via an Egyptian imam between the 1948 and 1967 Arab-Israel wars. It is the means by which Muslims engaged in kinetic jihad against the infidel enemy (i.e. Israel) can 'legally' take a breather from the combat, re-arm, push their logistical efforts forward or generally take advantage of a very temporary situation after which cold-blooded murder of the Jews can continue with relish.

There is absolutely nothing "humanitarian" in the Judeo-Christian sense about an Islamic hudna, especially when it comes to the land of Israel which to Muslims is a Dar al-Harb; that is a land where incessant war must be waged until it becomes conquered and therefore Dar al-Islam, or Muslim land.

In Israeli/Hebrew terms, which in no way correlate to the Egyptian Islamic hudna concept, a cease fire is referred to as hafsakat esh, and is essentially a true cease for a given duration of time unless Israel should learn that the terrorists plan to resume their attack prior to the official end of the hudna. At that point Israel may strike first to bring the ceasefire/hafsakat esh to its conclusion.  The hudna/hafsakat esh agreed to for later today is scheduled to run from 10 AM to 3 PM Israel time. Until then the war continues uninterrupted. A totally ridiculous situation in my opinion; political nonsense. War is war.

Second Update - OPE Day 10: So much for the second non-starter ceasefire. It appears to have been a very large ruse through which a dozen or more strong HAMAS commando team of would have infiltrated well into Israel and attacked. HAMAS commandos were are with RPGs, SAWs (squad automatic machine guns), explosives and assault weapons. It appears that Israel had acquired HUMINT indicating when and where the infiltration would occur. The terrorists were observed by the pre-positioned IDF troops as they began emerging from the tunnel exit inside Israel. After the majority of the terror commando team had emerged from the tunnel the IDF brought down withering fire upon them and an IAF strike destroyed the tunnel. Apparently there were no survivors as there is no report of any prisoners being taken.

A second terrorist infiltration event occurred in Israel's northern Negev Desert along a line from Ofakim, to Be'er Sheva to Dimona. Heavy IDF special forces and security responded, all major highways and roads were secured to all traffic.The 'all clear' was given about twenty minutes ago. Over in Gaza, the IDF hacked into Local TV to broadcast a message that southern Gaza residents must evacuate their homes immediately.

Third Update - OPE Day 10: The ground offensive looks very likely, but there is still a small chance that it could be cancelled, or curtailed. Almost certainly curtailed. A limited invasion. It seems that PM Netanyahu has now laid all of his cards on the table for all to see... even the enemy, and that has to be very, very encouraging for them.

What the short-sighted PM Bibi Netanyahu has just got done saying is that he'd rather not preempt Gazan participation in a coming multi-front war.  A reasonable Israeli military commander would rather not have to split his military forces onto three fronts in any land war; he would opt to remove one front from any consideration if the circumstances presented themselves for him to do so. And right now Netanyahu has an ally in President el-Sissi of Egypt who would like nothing better than to see HAMAS, the Egyptian MBs heavily armed wing, completely neutralized as long as good care is taken to inflict as few civilian casualties as would be possible.

So, Bibi is scared and afraid to wield the overwhelming power he has at his fingertips. Much too scared; much to afraid. But how much more scared will he be when the time comes and Gaza, the Sinai, the West Bank, Jordan, Lebanon and the Golan all become active fronts in an existential war? I believe Bibi will wish at that time that he went ahead and secured Israel's entire southern frontier  when he had the chance. Thank God Bibi was not Israel's PM in 1948, 1967 and 1973!

Egypt will not likely remain an ally of Israel indefinitely if, as Bibi now plans, HAMAS is allowed to survive. HAMAS and their MB allies will return their focus on el-Sissi's Egypt for their betrayal of the Islamic cause, and then they'll come back at Israel with the Egyptian military's full arsenal. The time to kill HAMAS permanently is right now, but Netanyahu look like he's going to pass on that. Even if the IDF armor and boots go into Gaza, they will not go in with orders to annihilate HAMAS. That is bad news, really bad news.

Final Update for OPE Day 10:  Yes, the imminent ground op got underway as I was focused on the Russian war crime in Donetsk, Ukraine. But that's another issue entirely.

Yes, the IDF ground op is massive, but according to PM Netanyahu (as detailed in the previous update) this mission does not have as its objective the total destruction of HAMAS, or to effect a regime change in Gaza, or otherwise revert control of Gaza back to Israel as it had been prior to 2005. The objective is to demilitarize HAMAS, the PIJ and the other armed Salafist jihadis in Gaza. The objective is to restore quiet and do so in a manner that it will take HAMAS years to reconstitute any offensive military capability for use against Israeli civilians. In sum, and at this point, the IDF has not been ordered to go in for the kill, but for a military neutering of HAMAS, et al.

Moreover, as with any and every war, no battle plan however well conceived and executed survives much past initial contact with the enemy. Case in evidence... the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. A couple weeks of rolling over an enemy that simply melted away from the battlefield resulted in almost a decade of occupational mission creep and nation building on a totally unsuitable foundation. Mission creep is as likely to plague the IDF in Gaza as it did US forces in OIF, and OEF for that matter. Secondly, this battle plan appears to assume all other Islamic jihadists in the region (such as Iran/Hezbollah/Syria or even the Islamic State) will just benignly stand by and allow the IDF to neuter the Islamic sacred bull in Gaza without so much as a peep.

 

Monday, July 14, 2014

Global SITREP C19-14: The Operationally Invalid Cease Fire That Failed; the War Continues and includes Iran

IDF armor in a 'hurry up and wait' formation near Gaza border.


15 July 2014 Operation Protective Edge - Day 8:  Now we know what has been holding a massive IDF armored invasion force up on the Gaza border. It is a Netanyahu government that is all too eager to placate, if not outright capitulate, to a leftist American presidential administration which clearly does not have Israel's best interests as its foreign policy's cutting edge.  There is no doubt that the failure to execute a Gaza ground operation as the only and truly effective means of neutering, and possibly even giving a coup d'grace to HAMAS, PIJ and other Islamic terrorists bombardment of Israeli cites and towns from Gaza, came at the hands of an inept Netanyahu government; a government which by all accounts on the evening of 14 July has acquiesced to an unenforceable cease fire agreement and agreed to a unilateral cease fire to take effect in about 5 hours from now (0900 IST) based upon terms which the Islamic aggressor has not even agreed to. 
OPE Day 8 - First Update: The security cabinet accepted the Egyptian mediation offer and agreed to the ceasefire imposed only upon Israel that went into effect at 0900 this morning in Israel.  HAMAS and PIJ are enemies of the government of Egypt; they rejected the ceasefire straightaway. Not only have the terrorists rejected the ceasefire, but it never discussed directly with them by anyone in the Egyptian government. So, combat missions continued in Gaza right up to the 0900 hour and then Israel honored the ceasefire agreement with Egypt. HAMAS and the PIJ have rejected the ceasefire and continue to fire heavy barrages of their artillery rockets into Israel, as have the terrorists in Lebanon and the Syrians who lobbed rockets into Israel from the north. HAMAS also fired rockets against Eilat in southern Israel for the first time. As noted in the title of this SITREP, this is an operationally invalid ceasefire to which only Egypt and Israel have agreed, yet Egypt is not involved in the hostilities and has been, more or less, an ally to Israel since the start of the war. This ceasefire had zero chance of success.

So, at this point (0600 in the US/1300 in Israel) it appears as if OPE combat operations against the Gaza terrorists have resumed after a very brief hiatus. Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu spoke about 20 minutes ago on the current situation saying (emphasis added):

We accepted the Egyptian proposal in order to present an opportunity for Gaza to be disarmed of its missiles, rockets, and tunnels through political means, but if Hamas does not accept this proposed ceasefire, and this is how it appears at present, Israel will have full international legitimacy for an expanded military operation to return the necessary quiet.

Operation Protective Edge continues on Day 8, hopefully without further unwarranted interruption.
 
Second and CRITICAL UPDATE OPE- Day 8: The Islamic Republic of Iran, specifically the Islamic Republic Guards Corps - Qods Force (IRGC-QF)  is the driving force of the continuing rocket fire from HAMAS and PIJ in Gaza as well as the rocket fire coming out of Lebanon and Syria by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command (PFLP-GC). The PFLP-GC and the PIJ are operational commands within the overall structure of the IRGC - Qods Force. This means that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and IRGC-QF commander Brigadier General Qasem Suleimani have issued an order to maintain rocket fire against Israel irregardless of any other external considerations (such as a ceasefire). Technically speaking, it is not only HAMAS that is openly at war with Israel, but so is the Islamic Republic of Iran waging an undeclared war against Israel through their proxy forces in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.

The links between IRGC-QF, PIJ and the PFLP-GC are very well known to both the United States, Israel and probably Egypt as well. An official Fact Sheet published by the US Department of the Treasury on October 25, 2007 makes these interconnections abundantly clear and has included updates which cite US President Barack Obama's Executive Order 13227 of April 13, 2013 in the enforcement of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

 Proof positive that IDF troops will have to enter Gaza City itself during a ground invasion. Here are three rockets being launched at Israel from the crowded urban city center today, 15 July 2014. Hard and dirty fighting lay ahead for IDF troops.

Third Update - OPE Day 8: Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu addressed the nation this evening and pretty much repeated the same things he has said all along. Nothing new here, except that he is operating in lock-step with the leftist Obama Administration.  Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman is calling for a full-scale invasion resulting in total IDF control of Gaza. While the Israeli security cabinet as a whole democratically accepted the Egyptian ceasefire proposal, both Liberman and Naftali Bennett cast their votes against accepting it. They were the only members of the cabinet to do so. OPE Day 9 could turn out to be a turning point in this war.

 Former Israel Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon

A very short time ago Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu fired Danny Danon, the Deputy Defense Minister and a member of Netanyahu's own Likud Party. The reason for the firing is a public statement Danon made that, on the surface at least, appears to  betray the PM's public comments. Stated DDM Danny Danon, "Once again, Hamas is dictating the terms. We must not be humiliated. We must correct the mistake of accepting the ceasefire proposal made this morning and let the military do its job."  I cannot help but think that Danny Danon will become the political leader of Israel that many thought Bibi Netanyahu would become. In fact, Danny Danon strongly reminds me of the young Bibi Netanyahu of a couple of decades ago. Watch Danon, his rise in Israeli politics could become meteoric in a very short span of time. He could become Israel's "Ronald Reagan."

Empty IDF HETs (Heavy Equipment Transports) seen in the vicinity of the Gaza border on 15JUL14. Empty HETs usually means the armor they transported to this point will be advancing into combat under their own power.

Final Update - OPE Day 8: Looks like the final blitz prior to the expected IDF ground operation will commence just after 0800 tomorrow Israel time - about 5 hours from now which is 8 PM EDT/5PM PDT in the US. The IDF delivered yet another warning order to approximately 100,000 Gaza residents to evacuate their residences prior to 8 AM.

Global SITREP C18-14: Meanwhile, back in Mesopotamia...

Iraqi Army M1A1 Main Battle Tank goes up in flames.

14 July 2014: Meanwhile, back in Mesopotamia the jihadists of the Islamic State (formerly known as ISIS) ambushed and completely destroyed a large and powerful Iraqi army column in the area of Al-Khalidiyah, Anbar Province, Iraq in very recent days. Al-Khalidiyah is about halfway between Ar-Ramadi and Al-Falluja, so it would seem that the Iraqi armor (mostly M1A1 MBTs and M113 APCs) was enroute to strike Al-Falluja from the west when it was ambushed by Islamic State fighters.

A column of several Iraqi Army M-113 APCs continue burning after the ambush.

The Iraqi Army clearly fought the Islamic State ambush at first, but then succumbed to the pressure of seeing their main battle tanks being overwhelmed and promptly abandoned their remainder of their armored vehicles in place rather than fight on or effect combat maneuvering to escape from the ambush. After the battle was finished the Islamic State drove the surviving and abandoned Iraqi Army armors off the field of battle as very prized war booty. This report can be seen in full at The Long War Journal.

Islamic State jihadists drive off with their M113 APC war booty.

Islamic State jihadists stand on top of a captured M1A1 Main Battle Tank.

One has to wonder what the reaction of the armed forces of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is to images such as these which have made the rounds after publication of the Islamic State's Twitter account four days ago. The Islamic State achieved this rather stunning victory without any overhead combat air support such as the government of Iraq is now known to have at its disposal.

UPDATE 14 July 2014:  Iraqi and U.S. officials have confirmed that fighters allied with the Islamic State not only captured hundreds of U.S.-supplied Humvees and large amounts of ammunition in their march across Iraq, but they also now possess as many as 52 U.S.-supplied artillery pieces with GPS aiming systems. The 155mm guns have a range of 20 miles, putting many Iraqi cities still in government hands easily within range of Islamic State positions. (Update via Mitchell Prothero @ mcclatchydc.com)

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Global SITREP C17-14: Exposing a False god on the Altar of Gaza

12 July 2014 Operation Protective Edge - Day Five (OPE-5): Before we begin this next SITREP, It has been impressed upon yours truly that just as Elijah forcefully exposed the ancient false good Ba'al to his adherents (1 Kings 18), so too a process of finality has begun to expose Baal's modern counterpart Allah as the false god that he is.  With respect to Israel's modern Islamist enemies encircling all around her, the prophets of the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob; the God of Israel's fathers who told Moses to say "I AM THAT I AM has sent me" (Exodus 3), the one true God is now about the business of exposing yet another false god. 

These enemies of the God of Israel (Psalm 83:2) are very fond of saying "if Allah wills" and who cry out how great he is every time they send a rocket to bring fire upon the children of Israel. How is it that this false god truly wills upon them good tidings when even Egypt has shut them out and closed its door to them? What beneficent act has this Allah bestowed upon the jihadists of Gaza when they have been so thoroughly boxed in against the Mediterranean Sea on one side, and by razor wire on all other sides, and beyond which, and above which, lies the existential threat posed to them all by army of Israel? From this altar that is Gaza, the false god of total submission will now save those who wage jihad against the children of Israel; who dare rage against the God who has gathered them once again into Eretz Israel from the four corners of the Earth?

Psalm 83:13-18; Isaiah 11:11-16, Ezekiel 28:24-26 and the whole of Ezekiel 35 are just three of the prophetically instructive passages for us to be mindful of as these days progress in to the weeks and months ahead; they foretell the plight and fate of those who wage war against the God of Israel and His people! How much clearer can our Lord say it than, "they will dwell securely, when I execute judgments on all those around them who despise them. Then they shall know that I am the Lord their God,"  and "Because you have had an ancient hatred, and have shed the blood of the children of Israel by the power of the sword at the time of their calamity, when their iniquity came to an end, therefore, as I live, I will prepare you for blood, and blood shall pursue you; since you have not hated blood, therefore blood shall pursue you." It doesn't get any clearer than this. On the altar that is Gaza will these prophetic words now begin to be made manifest before our own witnessing eyes. "Then you shall know that I am the Lord." Amen.

Pour water on Gaza. Let it Rain!

12 July 2014 OPE Day Five - Recapping Today's Events: After a brief lull, which is only relative to the pace of hostilities of previous days, OPE-5 brought the heaviest rocket fire and IAF air strike yet.  For the first time the IAF engaged in carpet bombing, with even heavier combat operations poised to commence in just hours. A final warning to evacuate urban areas was issued by the IDF to Gaza civilians. With Israeli Special Forces already surgically operating inside Gaza and then withdrawing (make no mistake, these are SpecOps - not a ground invasion) the handwriting is on the wall that the IDFs heavy armored and mechanized invasion force will not be far behind. This is a massive armored force to be sure. Additionally, with more three rockets coming into Israel from Lebanon, the entire dynamic of this war could change rather dramatically without out much additional forewarning. First indication of unease within the Arab League surfaces with the Kuwait delegation (the current Arab League chair is held by Kuwait) calling for an urgent meeting to be convened. This is another dynamic which could change very dramatically.


13 July OPE Day Six - IDF Warning Order: Indeed, the IDFs warning order for northern Gaza residents to hastily move to southern areas had a suspense of 12 Noon, local time, for completion. That suspense is now a full  +2 hours passed into history.  Based upon the IDF ultimatum (image below) to Gaza's population, I would speculate that in reality all of northern Gaza has been partitioned off on the IDF military planners maps on a line roughly from the Karni Crossing to the Mediterranean Sea and from there to northern Gaza border just south of Netiv Haasara and the Erez Crossing (the area boxed in red in the image above). If I am not mistaken, the sheer volume of rocket fire from this area has led to a determination by Israel's political leaders to seize it whole, quarantine it with IDF armor and then systematically raze it and sterilize it by brute force. This region of the Gaza Strip may more likely resemble the surface of the moon when this operation has become mission complete.


Final Update OPE Day 6: After the sun had set this evening in Israel mortar fire from inside Syria impacted near a Druse village called Mas'ade on the Golan Heights. The IDF returned fire with artillery directed at a total of nine Syrian army positions scoring several direct hits. That would tend to indicate that the first Syrian military casualties are likely to have occurred during Operation Protective Edge as Day 6 came to a close. There is no question the Syrian army deliberately attacked the Israeli side of the Golan and Israel responded with overwhelming force - as expected. 

14 July 2014 OPE Day 7 Roundup: The war continued apace today; it arrived and departed without an execute order for the ground forces to move on northern Gaza. The Gaza rocket fire and IAF counter-sorties continued without much change from the previous six days; it's as if this type of warfare has become routine fare... the air war goes on. This is so true that most media took to tallying up the number of rockets versus the number of IAF strikes that have occurred over the past seven days. In Judea and Samaria the situation remains as violent as ever; one Arab was shot and killed by IDF troops after he attacked their security patrol, and dozens of others were arrested. IDF units continue to train up for urban warfare. Another Syrian attack against the Golan occurred late today, but this time it was not mortar fire but a pair of missiles that were fired and impacted in the Golan.